What are the current odds for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?"?

YES is currently trading at 37.0% on Polymarket. NO is at 63.0%. 19 recent prints tracked.

When does this market resolve?

This Polymarket market resolves on Jul 15, 2026.

What is the total trading volume for this market?

Total trading volume on Polymarket: $3.32M. Last 24h: $686.5K.

Who are the biggest traders on this market?

The largest tracked bet is $41.3K by peoplearestrange entered at 75%. 22 large trades tracked in the last 7 days.

← All Markets

ActivePoliticsResolves Jul 15, 2026

¿El tráfico en el Estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad el 15 de julio?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily tra…

YES

37.0%

63.0%

Volume

$3.32M

Trade on Polymarket→

Stored · 7 days

Largest trades

22 tracked

1
@peoplearestrange
No@ 75.0%·20h ago
$41.3K
55,000 shares
2
@betwick
Yes@ 24.9%·20h ago
$31.8K
127,943 shares
3
@Knicksin3
No@ 72.5%·14h ago
$24.6K
33,872 shares
4
@peoplearestrange
No@ 75.0%·19h ago
$21.3K
28,364 shares
5
@betwick
Yes@ 26.5%·18h ago
$16.8K
63,404 shares
6
@peoplearestrange
No@ 75.0%·1d ago
$11.4K
15,250 shares
7
@peoplearestrange
No@ 71.7%·15h ago
$10.4K
14,450 shares
8
@Bertapotamous
No@ 74.0%·18h ago
$10.4K
14,000 shares
9
@peoplearestrange
No@ 74.0%·19h ago
$10.2K
13,800 shares
10
@StarMaster
No@ 75.0%·20h ago
$9.4K
12,500 shares
11
@Bertapotamous
No@ 76.0%·1d ago
$9.1K
12,000 shares
12
@hopedieslast
No@ 73.0%·18h ago
$8.9K
12,200 shares
13
@peoplearestrange
No@ 75.0%·21h ago
$7.5K
10,000 shares
14
@ArmageddonRewardsBilly
No@ 75.0%·20h ago
$7.5K
10,000 shares
15
@peoplearestrange
No@ 74.0%·19h ago
$7.4K
10,000 shares
16
@ProfessionalPunter
No@ 73.0%·18h ago
$7.3K
10,000 shares
17
@ArmageddonRewardsBilly
No@ 76.0%·21h ago
$6.9K
9,071 shares
18
@The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
No@ 76.0%·20h ago
$6.2K
8,204 shares
19
@WW3-Monitor
Yes@ 30.0%·16h ago
$6.2K
20,563 shares
20
@CARBEACH
Yes@ 29.8%·13h ago
$6.0K
20,107 shares
21
@hopedieslast
No@ 67.0%·3h ago
$5.4K
8,081 shares
22
@hideo
No@ 75.0%·20h ago
$5.0K
6,667 shares

Recent · live

Latest market flow

19 prints

@Jabotinsky
Yes@ 37.0%·13m ago
$20
@optionaldrakered
Yes@ 36.0%·14m ago
$2
@optionaldrakered
Yes@ 37.0%·14m ago
$2
@TelosBot
No@ 64.0%·17m ago
$50
Twin-Analysis-Signify
Yes@ 37.0%·22m ago
$30
@foobar1
No@ 64.0%·25m ago
$10
@S888
No@ 64.0%·25m ago
$12
@foobar1
Yes@ 36.0%·25m ago
$16
@S888
Yes@ 36.0%·25m ago
$21
@eleanorpenn
No@ 63.0%·28m ago
$11
Melodic-Salmon
No@ 63.0%·30m ago
$17
@bloprods
Yes@ 36.0%·33m ago
$5
0x175d…23a0
Yes@ 36.0%·36m ago
$11
0x175d…23a0
Yes@ 36.0%·43m ago
$12
0x1abe…1dda
No@ 64.0%·43m ago
$70
Pure-Weight
No@ 64.0%·45m ago
$4
@florence759maxim
Yes@ 36.0%·55m ago
$27
@Gisela214
Yes@ 36.0%·55m ago
$27
@Camila87
Yes@ 36.0%·55m ago
$27

About this market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? is a live Polymarket prediction market in the Politics category, resolving on Jul 15, 2026. Current odds put YES at 37.0% and NO at 63.0%.

PolyInsider tracks every trade on this market in real time. In the last 7 days, 22 large bets have been stored, with the biggest at $41.3K on a total market volume of $3.32M. Last 24-hour volume: $686.5K.

Trade directly on Polymarket via the link at the top — every click through PolyInsider supports the data infrastructure powering this site. Open the live order book on Polymarket →