Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

ActivePoliticsEnds Jan 1, 2027

The market prices Yes at 2.4% and No at 97.6%.

24h volume: $110.4K
Total volume: $43.6M
Whales: 25
Fresh wallets: 5

Trade on Polymarket ↗

Chance

Yes 2.4%No 97.6%Yes −1.0pp 1W

OutcomeChance24hTrade on Polymarket

Yes2.4%+0.3Buy Yes 2.4¢

No97.6%−0.3Buy No 97.6¢

Whales & fresh walletsConnecting

Market vol · 5m-

All trades · 5m-

Buy pressure-

@samemmaWhale13h ago

$17,319 buying No

Bought at: $0.98
Shares: 17,745
Profit if right: $426

0xa642…b419Whale1d ago

$8,800 buying No

Bought at: $0.98
Shares: 9,007
Profit if right: $207

@samemmaWhale1d ago

$10,752 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 11,028
Profit if right: $276

0xfe42…113eFresh2d ago

$594 buying No

Bought at: $0.98
Shares: 609
Profit if right: $15

@sheen07Whale3d ago

$15,440 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 15,841
Profit if right: $401

@qmarktea2Whale3d ago

$9,526 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 9,791
Profit if right: $264

@qmarktea2Whale3d ago

$10,598 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 10,898
Profit if right: $300

0xa642…b419Whale3d ago

$6,124 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 6,307
Profit if right: $183

0xfeba…5a97Fresh3d ago

$594 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 611
Profit if right: $17

@freeman123Whale4d ago

$11,112 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 11,456
Profit if right: $344

@qmarktea2Whale5d ago

$12,942 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 13,385
Profit if right: $443

@qmarktea2Whale5d ago

$6,058 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 6,258
Profit if right: $200

@0xrcWhale6d ago

$9,660 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $340

0xda2d…66d9Fresh7d ago

$594 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 615
Profit if right: $21

0xda2d…66d9Fresh7d ago

$594 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 615
Profit if right: $21

0xda2d…66d9Fresh7d ago

$594 buying No

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 615
Profit if right: $21

@minisobabyWhale11d ago

$5,001 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 5,209
Profit if right: $208

@0xrcWhale11d ago

$13,895 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 14,451
Profit if right: $556

@ChrisZyy-RealWhale13d ago

$8,599 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 8,967
Profit if right: $368

@freeman123Whale13d ago

$36,463 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 37,983
Profit if right: $1,519

@chriszyy3Whale15d ago

$7,622 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 7,965
Profit if right: $342

@AnjunWhale15d ago

$21,222 buying No

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 22,222
Profit if right: $1,000

@chriszyy3Whale15d ago

$20,012 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 20,911
Profit if right: $899

@janeju1029Whale16d ago

$5,000 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 5,200
Profit if right: $200

@End123Whale17d ago

$20,187 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 21,021
Profit if right: $835

@AvamaxWhale17d ago

$15,279 buying No

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 16,033
Profit if right: $754

@AvamaxWhale17d ago

$10,854 buying No

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 11,381
Profit if right: $527

0x8b4b…541bWhale17d ago

$28,534 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 29,661
Profit if right: $1,127

@helloblockchainWhale17d ago

$7,242 buying No

Bought at: $0.94
Shares: 7,688
Profit if right: $446

0x49f2…d7b4Whale17d ago

$9,430 buying No

Bought at: $0.94
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $570

@AvamaxWhale17d ago

$44,794 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 46,660
Profit if right: $1,866

@hgamezoonWhale17d ago

$8,169 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 8,500
Profit if right: $332

@ArmageddonRewardsBillyWhale17d ago

$9,500 buying No

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $500

@Top1-JWhale17d ago

$12,480 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 13,000
Profit if right: $520

0xf3e9…ec41Whale17d ago

$7,578 buying Yes

Bought at: $0.05
Shares: 159,193
Profit if right: $151,615

@ImJustKenWhale17d ago

$44,815 buying No

Bought at: $0.94
Shares: 47,625
Profit if right: $2,810

@AnjunWhale17d ago

$31,833 buying No

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 33,333
Profit if right: $1,500

@0xwordjnnWhale17d ago

$5,835 buying No

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 6,129
Profit if right: $294

@BunCaChamWhale17d ago

$50,109 buying No

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 52,635
Profit if right: $2,526

@allenzzzWhale18d ago

$100,175 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 104,241
Profit if right: $4,065

@e88888Whale18d ago

$5,476 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 5,699
Profit if right: $222

@e88888Whale18d ago

$11,724 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 12,200
Profit if right: $476

@WintaiwanwinaiFresh21d ago

$2,000 buying Yes

Bought at: $0.04
Shares: 50,251
Profit if right: $48,251

@randomgoFresh28d ago

$22,606 buying No

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 23,499
Profit if right: $893