PolyInsider logo

PolyInsider

← All Markets
ActiveForeign PolicyResolves Dec 31, 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Re…

YES

5.5%

NO

94.5%

Trade on Polymarket→

Stored · 7 days

Largest trades

6 tracked

  1. @ElectricSamurai
    No@ 94.5%·1d ago

    $29.6K

    31,298 shares

  2. @ElectricSamurai
    No@ 94.6%·1d ago

    $11.8K

    12,496 shares

  3. @QWETR12345
    No@ 94.4%·2d ago

    $10.0K

    10,595 shares

  4. @BlindGibbon
    No@ 94.4%·1d ago

    $8.5K

    9,046 shares

  5. Discrete-Species
    No@ 94.2%·2d ago

    $8.4K

    8,947 shares

  6. @ANDREWZHU
    No@ 93.7%·4d ago

    $2.0K

    2,129 shares

Recent · live

Latest market flow

22 prints

  1. 0xcb82…8935
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  2. 0xcb82…8935
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  3. 0x8b3c…5513
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  4. 0x8b3c…5513
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  5. 0xe29f…e326
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $9

  6. 0xe29f…e326
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $9

  7. 0x3304…906a
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  8. 0x3304…906a
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  9. 0x1b73…cbb4
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  10. 0x1b73…cbb4
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  11. @35VKHN7
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $21

  12. 0x7b52…06a1
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  13. 0x7b52…06a1
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  14. @TRCCYTV
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $33

  15. 0xe29f…e326
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $9

  16. 0x5f42…e101
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $10

  17. 0xe29f…e326
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $9

  18. 0x5f42…e101
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  19. @SigmaNinja1062
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $55

  20. 0x1b73…cbb4
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  21. 0x1b73…cbb4
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  22. 0xca84…27f4
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $6

About this market

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is a live Polymarket prediction market in the Foreign Policy category, resolving on Dec 31, 2026. Current odds put YES at 5.5% and NO at 94.5%.

PolyInsider tracks every trade on this market in real time. In the last 7 days, 6 large bets have been stored, with the biggest at $29.6K on a total market volume of $37.06M. Last 24-hour volume: $45.5K.

Trade directly on Polymarket via the link at the top — every click through PolyInsider supports the data infrastructure powering this site. Open the live order book on Polymarket →