BBC
Shadow chancellor to unveil Tory plans to cut taxes and regulations
Shadow ministers will unveil a series of policies on day two of the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham.
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BBCFeatured story
Trump chooses top spy boss to run new AI taskforce
The US president said his national intelligence chief will lead the group as worries over AI grow.
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Polymarket
run · donald trumpWill Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Current probabilityYes5%Best match$7K 24h volumerun · donald trumpWill Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?Current probabilityYes4%Related market$12K Total volumedonald trump · united states of americaWill Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Current probabilityYes1%Related market$330K 24h volume
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BBC
Average five-year mortgage rate hits 6% for first time in three years
The cost of a new fixed-rate mortgage has been rising in recent weeks as lenders face higher costs.
CoinDesk
Kraken operator Payward and Singapore Gulf Bank platform for 24/7 institutional crypto settlement
The two firms will initially roll out the digital assets settlement service to select institutional clients in Asia and the Gulf region with around-the-clock U.S. dollar settlement.
Matched markets3
bank · united states of americaUS bank failure by December 31, 2026?Current probabilityYes48%Best match$236 24h volumebank · united states of americaMajor U.S. bank bailout before 2027?Current probabilityYes5%Related market$4K Total volumebank · united states of americaWill US Bank fail by end of 2026?Current probabilityYes3%Related market$467 24h volume
BBC
Connor out, Lewis in as England name World Cup squad
Leeds Rhinos half-back Jake Connor is left out of England's Rugby League World Cup squad, with Hull KR's Mikey Lewis beating him to a place.
Matched markets3
fifa world cup · englandWill England win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?Current probabilityYes14%Best match$21 Total volumefifa world cupCricket World Cup League 2: USA vs UAECurrent probabilityUSA68%UAE33%Related market$910 24h volumefifa world cupCricket World Cup League 2: USA vs NamibiaCurrent probabilityUSA72%Namibia28%Related market
BBC
US removes all bombers from RAF Fairford base
No reason has been given for the withdrawal, but it follows a major incident last week when police were alerted to "suspicious vehicles" near the airbase.
BBC
All the goals from the Women's Super League - matchweek five
Watch every goal from matchweek five of the Women's Super League 2026-27 season.
Matched markets3
superSüper Lig: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference LeagueCurrent probabilityGalatasarayYes50%FenerbahçeYes50%TrabzonsporYes50%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related marketwomenUEFA Women's Champions League 2026-27 WinnerCurrent probabilityOL LyonnesYes18%BarcelonaYes60%Paris Saint-GermainYes5%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$2K 24h volumesuperSüper Lig: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa LeagueCurrent probabilityGalatasarayYes50%FenerbahçeYes50%TrabzonsporYes50%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market
CoinDesk
Bitcoin is about to get a major bullish signal it hasn't had in over a year
Key price averages are on the verge of confirming a major bullish configuration for the first time in over a year.
Matched markets2
bitcoinBitcoin price on October 5?Current probability<74,000Yes<1%90,000-92,000Yes<1%82,000-84,000Yes2%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$77K 24h volumebitcoinWhat price will ETH/BTC hit October 5-11?Current probability↑ 0.0345Yes50%↑ 0.0335Yes50%↑ 0.0325Yes50%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market
CoinDesk
Ethereum investors are stuck in a two-week staking exit line. Here's why.
Ether waiting to enter staking has fallen by more than a quarter since early September, while the exit queue hit its longest of 2026.
Matched markets3
ethereumWill Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?Current probability$1,00018%$3,00082%Related market$111K Total volumeethereumWhat price will ETH/BTC hit October 5-11?Current probability↑ 0.0345Yes50%↑ 0.0335Yes50%↑ 0.0325Yes50%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related marketethereumWill CryptoPunks floor price reach 50 ETH before 2027?Current probabilityYes12%Related market$16K Total volume
BBC
Polanski banned from Israel after party's motion declaring 'Zionism is racism'
The vote has caused divisions among figures at the top of the party at its conference in Brighton.
BBC
Supporters of jailed ex-PM Imran Khan march to Pakistan capital
Thousands have taken to the streets after talks between authorities and Khan's party ended in deadlock.
BBC
Watch: How Brazil's dramatic election unfolded
Millions of Brazilians took to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the country's presidential elections.
Matched markets3
brazil · roundBrazil Presidential Election First Round: TurnoutCurrent probability78-80%Yes99%<76%Yes<1%82%+Yes<1%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Best match$8K 24h volumebrazil · roundBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in AmapáCurrent probabilityLulaYes95%Flavio BolsonaroYes1%Clariana BaraoYes<1%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$45K 24h volumebrazil · roundBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in AmazonasCurrent probabilityLulaYes>99%Flavio BolsonaroYes<1%Clariana BaraoYes<1%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$8K 24h volume
CoinDesk
Joint venture of OKX and NYSE parent ICE files for 24/7 tokenized U.S. stock trading
OKXICE, the joint venture of OKX and ICE, plans to launch tokenized U.S. stocks under SEC's new innovation exemption.
Matched markets3
joint · venture · united states of americaWill the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?Current probabilityYes4%Related market$400 24h volumetokenized · stocks · united states of americaFirst to list tokenized stocks in the US?Current probabilityRobinhoodYes47%KrakenYes42%CoinbaseYes3%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$2K 24h volumenyse · tokenizedWhat chain will the NYSE choose for tokenized securities?Current probabilityEthereumYes39%SolanaYes30%BaseYes43%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$4K Total volume
CoinDesk
Bitcoin zooms toward $87,000, nearly setting an eight-month high, then reverses
Bitcoin came within about $500 of its late-September peak before sellers pushed it back under $86,000. It's the second rally in a week to stall.
Matched markets3
month · bitcoinBitcoin best month in 2026?Current probabilityOctoberYes6%AugustYes88%NovemberYes5%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Best match$81 24h volumebitcoinBitcoin price on October 5?Current probability<74,000Yes<1%90,000-92,000Yes<1%82,000-84,000Yes2%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$77K 24h volumebitcoinWhat price will ETH/BTC hit October 5-11?Current probability↑ 0.0345Yes50%↑ 0.0335Yes50%↑ 0.0325Yes50%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market
BBC
All six passengers presumed dead after plane went missing off US coast
The aircraft lost communication with flight controllers after significantly dropping in altitude, according to flight data.
Matched markets3
off · united states of americaCanada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?Current probabilityYes6%Related market$4K Total volumeoff · aircraftWill any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?Current probabilityOctober 31Yes3%December 31Yes11%Related market$57K Total volumeaircraft · united states of americaHow many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?Current probability3Yes19%2Yes45%4+Yes7%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$997 24h volume
CoinDesk
Ether's bitcoin-beating Q3 rally came with a catch. Liquidity thinned.
Ether beat bitcoin in the third quarter, but its market liquidity got thinner, according to Coingecko.
BBC
Right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro wins first round of Brazil election
With neither candidate getting more than 50% of the vote, the election will go to a run-off on 25 October.
Matched markets3
flavio · bolsonaro · brazilWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Current probabilityYes1%Best match$45K 24h volumeflavio · bolsonaro · brazilWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Current probabilityYes<1%Related market$8K 24h volumeflavio · bolsonaro · brazilWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?Current probabilityYes>99%Related market$8K 24h volume
BBC
How India became dangerously addicted to Chinese imports
India’s toy shops provide an unlikely barometer by which to measure its economic relationship with China.
BBC
Israel 'tried to intimidate' Irish amid spitting row - Hallgrimsson
Republic of Ireland head coach Heimir Hallgrimsson says he felt Israel were "trying to intimidate" his team amid allegations of spitting during Sunday's Nations League draw.
Matched markets3
nations · israelWill Israel be promoted to Nations League A in 2026-27?Current probabilityYes26%Related market$652 24h volumenations · israelWill Israel win 2026-27 Nations League Group B3?Current probabilityYes2%Related market$1K 24h volumerepublic · ireland · israelRepublic of Ireland vs. Israel - Player PropsCurrent probabilityRyan Manning: 3+ shotsYes50%Ryan Manning: 4+ shotsYes50%Jack Moylan: 1+ shotsYes50%More outcomes on Polymarket ↗Related market$40 24h volume
BBC
Bellamy bemoans new schedule after Denmark loss
Craig Bellamy suggests the new four-match international window has counted against Wales after Sunday's Nations League defeat against Denmark.
Matched markets3
denmark · nationsWill Denmark win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?Current probabilityYes<1%Related market$20K 24h volumedenmark · nationsWill Denmark host the 2027 UEFA Nations League Finals?Current probabilityYes1%Related market$482 24h volumedenmark · nationsWill Denmark be relegated from Nations League A in 2026-27?Current probabilityYes37%Related market$895 24h volume