What are the current odds for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?"?

YES is currently trading at 38.0% on Polymarket. NO is at 62.0%. 17 recent prints tracked.

When does this market resolve?

This Polymarket market resolves on Jul 15, 2026.

What is the total trading volume for this market?

Total trading volume on Polymarket: $3.34M. Last 24h: $698.9K.

Who are the biggest traders on this market?

The largest tracked bet is $41.3K by peoplearestrange entered at 75%. 22 large trades tracked in the last 7 days.

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ActivePoliticsResolves Jul 15, 2026

O tráfego no Estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal em 15 de julho?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily tra…

YES

38.0%

62.0%

Volume

$3.34M

Trade on Polymarket→

Stored · 7 days

Largest trades

22 tracked

1
@peoplearestrange
No@ 75.0%·21h ago
$41.3K
55,000 shares
2
@betwick
Yes@ 24.9%·21h ago
$31.8K
127,943 shares
3
@Knicksin3
No@ 72.5%·15h ago
$24.6K
33,872 shares
4
@peoplearestrange
No@ 75.0%·20h ago
$21.3K
28,364 shares
5
@betwick
Yes@ 26.5%·19h ago
$16.8K
63,404 shares
6
@peoplearestrange
No@ 75.0%·1d ago
$11.4K
15,250 shares
7
@peoplearestrange
No@ 71.7%·16h ago
$10.4K
14,450 shares
8
@Bertapotamous
No@ 74.0%·19h ago
$10.4K
14,000 shares
9
@peoplearestrange
No@ 74.0%·20h ago
$10.2K
13,800 shares
10
@StarMaster
No@ 75.0%·21h ago
$9.4K
12,500 shares
11
@Bertapotamous
No@ 76.0%·1d ago
$9.1K
12,000 shares
12
@hopedieslast
No@ 73.0%·19h ago
$8.9K
12,200 shares
13
@peoplearestrange
No@ 75.0%·22h ago
$7.5K
10,000 shares
14
@ArmageddonRewardsBilly
No@ 75.0%·21h ago
$7.5K
10,000 shares
15
@peoplearestrange
No@ 74.0%·20h ago
$7.4K
10,000 shares
16
@ProfessionalPunter
No@ 73.0%·19h ago
$7.3K
10,000 shares
17
@ArmageddonRewardsBilly
No@ 76.0%·22h ago
$6.9K
9,071 shares
18
@The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
No@ 76.0%·21h ago
$6.2K
8,204 shares
19
@WW3-Monitor
Yes@ 30.0%·17h ago
$6.2K
20,563 shares
20
@CARBEACH
Yes@ 29.8%·14h ago
$6.0K
20,107 shares
21
@hopedieslast
No@ 67.0%·4h ago
$5.4K
8,081 shares
22
@hideo
No@ 75.0%·21h ago
$5.0K
6,667 shares

Recent · live

Latest market flow

17 prints

Careful-Bunch
No@ 62.0%·2m ago
$9
Careful-Bunch
Yes@ 38.0%·2m ago
$1.5K
@CDReves
No@ 63.0%·2m ago
$13
@CDReves
No@ 63.0%·3m ago
$19
Lonely-Kinase
No@ 63.0%·4m ago
$6
@wavesinthesky
Yes@ 38.0%·5m ago
$6
Dual-Foray-Roof
Yes@ 38.0%·7m ago
$5
@EpicFury
Yes@ 37.0%·9m ago
$37
@Gabriella0
Yes@ 38.0%·10m ago
$4
@latoya795dash
Yes@ 37.0%·11m ago
$32
@Th3Herbalist
Yes@ 37.0%·11m ago
$6
@Quadeybmn
No@ 63.0%·11m ago
$30
@variant1.meta
No@ 63.0%·11m ago
$189
@98132wxc
No@ 62.0%·12m ago
$124
@coolquail
No@ 63.0%·12m ago
$405
@PitiolugRPGs
No@ 63.0%·14m ago
$10
@Steve.Park
Yes@ 36.0%·16m ago
$270

About this market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? is a live Polymarket prediction market in the Politics category, resolving on Jul 15, 2026. Current odds put YES at 38.0% and NO at 62.0%.

PolyInsider tracks every trade on this market in real time. In the last 7 days, 22 large bets have been stored, with the biggest at $41.3K on a total market volume of $3.34M. Last 24-hour volume: $698.9K.

Trade directly on Polymarket via the link at the top — every click through PolyInsider supports the data infrastructure powering this site. Open the live order book on Polymarket →