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ActiveForeign PolicyResolves Dec 31, 2026

A China invadirá Taiwan até o final de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Re…

YES

5.5%

NO

94.5%

Trade on Polymarket→

Stored · 7 days

Largest trades

6 tracked

  1. @ElectricSamurai
    No@ 94.5%·1d ago

    $29.6K

    31,298 shares

  2. @ElectricSamurai
    No@ 94.6%·1d ago

    $11.8K

    12,496 shares

  3. @QWETR12345
    No@ 94.4%·2d ago

    $10.0K

    10,595 shares

  4. @BlindGibbon
    No@ 94.4%·1d ago

    $8.5K

    9,046 shares

  5. Discrete-Species
    No@ 94.2%·2d ago

    $8.4K

    8,947 shares

  6. @ANDREWZHU
    No@ 93.7%·4d ago

    $2.0K

    2,129 shares

Recent · live

Latest market flow

25 prints

  1. 0xe3ef…960b
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  2. 0xe3ef…960b
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  3. 0x1bbb…8177
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  4. 0x1bbb…8177
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  5. @SwiftVoyager5078
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $54

  6. 0x1316…b090
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  7. 0x1316…b090
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  8. @duzhou1983
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $1

  9. @allesklar
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $8

  10. 0x5f42…e101
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  11. 0xd390…89ae
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $7

  12. 0x5f42…e101
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  13. 0xd390…89ae
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $7

  14. 0xa920…07a4
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  15. 0xa920…07a4
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  16. @AlphaSamurai2016
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $72

  17. 0xe29f…e326
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $8

  18. 0xe29f…e326
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $8

  19. 0x3304…906a
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  20. 0x3304…906a
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  21. 0x408c…5eff
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  22. 0x408c…5eff
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

  23. @BoldHunter5592
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $43

  24. 0x8b3c…5513
    No@ 94.5%·3h ago

    $5

  25. 0x8b3c…5513
    No@ 94.6%·3h ago

    $5

About this market

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is a live Polymarket prediction market in the Foreign Policy category, resolving on Dec 31, 2026. Current odds put YES at 5.5% and NO at 94.5%.

PolyInsider tracks every trade on this market in real time. In the last 7 days, 6 large bets have been stored, with the biggest at $29.6K on a total market volume of $37.06M. Last 24-hour volume: $45.0K.

Trade directly on Polymarket via the link at the top — every click through PolyInsider supports the data infrastructure powering this site. Open the live order book on Polymarket →