October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

ActiveWeather6 outcomesEnds Dec 2, 2026

1.45–1.49ºC leads at 45.0%, ahead of 1.35–1.39ºC (40.0%) and 1.40–1.44ºC (38.5%).

Outcome · 6Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

11.45–1.49ºC$72 vol45.0%-Buy Yes 45.0¢Buy No 55.0¢

21.35–1.39ºC$147 vol40.0%-Buy Yes 40.0¢Buy No 60.0¢

31.40–1.44ºC$95 vol38.5%-Buy Yes 38.5¢Buy No 61.5¢

4>1.49ºC$211 vol16.0%−0.5Buy Yes 16.0¢Buy No 84.0¢

51.30–1.34ºC$244 vol15.0%-Buy Yes 15.0¢Buy No 85.0¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.

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