Polymarket Geopolitics Odds
Markets on wars, ceasefires, world leaders and international relations, ordered by total volume. Each row shows the leading outcome and its probability, 24-hour and total volume, and how many whales ($5,000+ buys) and brand-new wallets have bet on it.
Market
Netanyahu out by...?20$10.9K$124.6MJan 1, 27
Venezuela leader end of 2026?50$32.0K$98.4MJan 1, 27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?151$58.7K$76.2MJan 1, 27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?794$327.3K$74.4MJan 1, 27
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?7833$281.0K$46.9MOct 28, 26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2714$67.7K$44.2MJan 1, 27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?935$542.8K$40.9MJan 1, 27
Iran leader end of 2026?20$10.6K$40.2MDec 31, 26
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?429$757.0K$35.8MDec 31, 26
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?10$3.8K$29.6MJan 1, 27
Putin out as President of Russia by...?214$10.6K$29.3MJul 1, 27
Iran leadership change by...?120$120.8K$27.5MJul 1, 27
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?272$85.0K$27.3MJan 1, 27
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?10$6.2K$22.2MJan 1, 27
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?141$67.0K$20.0MJan 1, 27
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?10$4.3K$18.1MJan 1, 27
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?330$105.1K$17.1MJan 1, 27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?160$102.5K$15.0MJan 1, 27
Xi Jinping out before 2027?185$61.0K$15.0MJan 1, 27
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?855$1.2M$14.5MOct 31, 26
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?00$12$14.2MJan 1, 27
Trump out as President before 2027?102$54.6K$12.6MJan 1, 27
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?00$5.6K$11.8MJan 1, 27
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?10$0$10.9MJan 1, 27
Iran full airspace closure by...?60$20.5K$10.2MJan 1, 27
NATO x Russia military clash by...?195$18.6K$9.1MJan 3, 27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?124$49.2K$8.7MJul 1, 27
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?10$3.5K$8.5MJan 1, 27
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?00$306$7.8MJan 1, 27
US military action against Cuba by...?10$2.4K$7.6MJan 1, 27
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?60$462$7.6MJan 1, 27
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?30$29.0K$7.4MJan 1, 27
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?10$318$6.4MJan 1, 27
Russia nuclear test by...?00$0$6.3MJan 1, 27
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?10$2.7K$5.5MJan 1, 27
Crude Oil all time high by...?121$22.0K$5.0MJan 1, 27
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?31$3.8K$4.3MJul 1, 27
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?00$0$4.1MJan 1, 27
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?10$1.6K$3.8MJan 1, 27
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?00$157$3.8MJan 1, 27Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?50$33.6K$3.6MJan 1, 27
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?50$2.4K$3.6MJan 1, 27
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?30$2.1K$3.5MJan 1, 27Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?21$9.7K$3.5MJan 1, 28
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?00$0$3.5MJan 1, 27
US strike on Mexico by...?10$300$3.5MJan 1, 27
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?10$1.3K$3.5MJan 1, 27
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?70$22.3K$3.1MNov 1, 26
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?00$1.9K$3.1MJan 1, 27
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?00$0$3.1MJan 1, 27