Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi
Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi leads at 100.0%, ahead of Completed Match (100.0%) and Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 Winner (100.0%).
- 24h volume
- $279.2K
- Total volume
- $268.4K
- Whales
- 7
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi$265.2K vol100.0%+52.4Completed Match100.0%+49.5Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 Winner$285 vol100.0%+50.0Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Total Sets: O/U 2.5$28 vol0.05%−40.0Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 8.50.05%−47.9Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 9.50.05%−47.9Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 10.50.05%−47.9Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 21.5$83 vol0.05%−61.0Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 22.5$124 vol0.05%−50.9Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 23.5$242 vol0.05%−44.5Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Game Spread +/-0.50.05%−50.4Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 Winner$1.8K vol · resolved100.0%+51.4Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 8.5$55 vol · resolved100.0%+17.9Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 9.5 · resolved100.0%+42.4Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 10.5 · resolved100.0%+67.0Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set Handicap +/-1.5$551 vol · resolved0.0%−32.5Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.
Market read
Who leads the Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi a over 99% chance, ahead of Completed Match at over 99% and Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 Winner at over 99%. 16 outcomes are listed, 5 of them already resolved. Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi has risen from 50% on Oct 25 to 100% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 52 points.
Where is the whale money going?
Our tracker has logged 9 whale bets ($5,000 or more) on this market from 7 wallets since Oct 26, $77.5K in all. The most whale money went to Luciano Darderi on Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi: $66.5K, 86% of the total. The largest single bet was $15.9K on Luciano Darderi on Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi at 75¢ by Substantial-Service on Oct 26. $268.4K has been traded in total, $279.2K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 3, 2026.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Luciano Darderi and Matteo Arnaldi in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Matteo Arnaldi.
This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Luciano Darderi.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.