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AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory

ActiveMidterms9 outcomesEnds Nov 4, 2026

Democrat 20-25% leads at 30.5%, ahead of Democrat 15-20% (25.0%) and Democrat 10-15% (14.0%).

24h volume: $164
Total volume: $9.5K
Whales: 0
Fresh wallets: 0

Trade on Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 9Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

Democrat 20-25%$2.3K vol30.5%-Buy Yes 30.5¢Buy No 69.5¢

Democrat 15-20%$2.6K vol25.0%+3.0Buy Yes 25.0¢Buy No 75.0¢

Democrat 10-15%$1.1K vol14.0%−1.5Buy Yes 14.0¢Buy No 86.0¢

Democrat 5-10%$775 vol9.5%−3.5Buy Yes 9.5¢Buy No 90.5¢

Democrat 25-30%$1.2K vol8.0%−0.5Buy Yes 8.0¢Buy No 92.0¢

Democrat 35%+$383 vol4.2%+1.1Buy Yes 4.2¢Buy No 95.8¢

Republican Wins$634 vol0.85%−0.1Buy Yes 0.9¢Buy No 99.2¢

Democrat 0-5%$188 vol0.50%−0.1Buy Yes 0.5¢Buy No 99.5¢

Democrat 30-35%$323 vol0.30%−0.7Buy Yes 0.3¢Buy No 99.7¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.