What will the biggest earthquake be on October 25, 2026?
6.1 or more leads at 97.2%, ahead of Under 5.3 (2.9%) and 5.3 to 5.4 (0.55%).
- 24h volume
- $199
- Total volume
- $4.3K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
6.1 or more$1.3K vol97.2%−2.3Under 5.3$1.3K vol2.9%+2.65.3 to 5.4$444 vol0.55%−0.55.5 to 5.6$472 vol0.55%+0.15.7 to 5.8$420 vol0.55%−0.45.9 to 6.0$376 vol0.55%−0.4Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.
Market read
Who leads the What will the biggest earthquake be on October 25, 2026 market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 6.1 or more a 97% chance, ahead of Under 5.3 at 3% and 5.3 to 5.4 at under 1%. 6 outcomes are listed. 6.1 or more has risen from 51% on Oct 23 to 97% now. Over the last 24 hours it is down 2.3 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $4.3K has been traded in total, $199 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Oct 26, 2026.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 25, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 25, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 26, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
If no earthquake data for October 25, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 26, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.