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CA-30 House Election Margin of Victory

ActiveMidterms10 outcomesEnds Nov 3, 2026

Democrat 35-40% leads at 34.0%, ahead of Democrat 50-55% (33.0%) and Democrat 30-35% (32.5%).

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Outcome · 10Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

Democrat 35-40%34.0%−3.5Buy Yes 34.0¢Buy No 66.0¢

Democrat 50-55%33.0%−4.5Buy Yes 33.0¢Buy No 67.0¢

Democrat 30-35%32.5%−5.0Buy Yes 32.5¢Buy No 67.5¢

Democrat 0-20%32.5%−7.0Buy Yes 32.5¢Buy No 67.5¢

Democrat 20-30%31.5%−6.5Buy Yes 31.5¢Buy No 68.5¢

Democrat 45-50%31.0%−7.0Buy Yes 31.0¢Buy No 69.0¢

Democrat 60%+30.5%−7.0Buy Yes 30.5¢Buy No 69.5¢

Democrat 40-45%30.0%−8.0Buy Yes 30.0¢Buy No 70.0¢

Democrat 55-60%29.5%−8.0Buy Yes 29.5¢Buy No 70.5¢

Republican Wins26.5%−11.6Buy Yes 26.5¢Buy No 73.5¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.