Closer Senate Race: Nebraska or Texas?
The market prices Yes at 97.0% and No at 3.0%.
- 24h volume
- $387
- Total volume
- $1.7K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
What are the odds on "Closer Senate Race: Nebraska or Texas"?
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 97%. Yes has risen from 52% on Oct 29 to 80% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 8.0 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $1.7K has been traded in total, $387 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 4, 2026.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Nebraska" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Nebraska has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Texas Senate election.
This market will resolve to "Texas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Texas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Nebraska Senate election.
If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.