France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
The market prices Yes at 6.0% and No at 94.0%.
- 24h volume
- $230
- Total volume
- $35.2K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
What are the odds on "France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30"?
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 94%. Over the last 24 hours it is up 0.5 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $35.2K has been traded in total, $230 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 1, 2026.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., "foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation") will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.