France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31 leads at 2.5%, ahead of November 15 (0.55%).
- 24h volume
- $4.9K
- Total volume
- $324.7K
- Whales
- 1
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the France declares state of siege (martial law) by... market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give December 31 a 2% chance, ahead of November 15 at under 1%. December 31 has fallen from 3% on Oct 29 to 2% now. Over the last 24 hours it is down 1.1 points.
Where is the whale money going?
Our tracker has logged 1 whale bet ($5,000 or more) on this market from 1 wallet since Oct 19, $12.2K in all. All of it went to No on October 31. The largest single bet was $12.2K on No on October 31 at 98¢ by @Seutervoinen on Oct 19. $324.7K has been traded in total, $4.9K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.