How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16 leads at 48.0%, ahead of 17–19 (34.5%) and 11–13 (4.0%).
- 24h volume
- $100
- Total volume
- $1.5M
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026 market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 14–16 a 48% chance, ahead of 17–19 at 35% and 11–13 at 4%. 7 outcomes are listed, 3 of them already resolved. 14–16 has fallen from 49% on Oct 29 to 46% now. Over the last 24 hours it is down 2.5 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $1.5M has been traded in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 8, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.