How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1 leads at 48.0%, ahead of 0 (22.5%) and 2 (17.6%).
- 24h volume
- $240
- Total volume
- $1.2M
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026 market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 1 a 48% chance, ahead of 0 at 23% and 2 at 18%. 6 outcomes are listed. 1 has held near 48% since Oct 28. Over the last 24 hours it is down 1.0 point.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $1.2M has been traded in total, $240 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Apr 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.