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Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

ActiveWeather4 outcomesEnds Jan 9, 2027

October leads at 88.2%, ahead of November (5.5%) and December (3.4%).

24h volume
$1.2K
Total volume
$73.9K
Whales
0
Fresh wallets
0
Source: Polymarket ↗
Outcome · 4Chance
88%−3.3%
6%+0.3%
3%
<1%

Market read

Who leads the Melbourne's wettest month of 2026 market on Polymarket?

Polymarket traders give October a 88% chance, ahead of November at 6% and December at 3%. 4 outcomes are listed. October has fallen from 97% on Oct 29 to 88% now. Over the last 24 hours it is down 3.3 points.

Where is the whale money going?

No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $73.9K has been traded in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours.

How does this market resolve?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 9, 2027.

Resolution rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338.

Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

Each month will be resolved on the figure as first published. Revisions issued after first publication will not be considered. The totals already published for January through September 2026 are final for the purposes of this market, and August, at 66.0 mm, is the highest of them, so only the four listed months can finish as the wettest month of 2026.

If two or more months tie for the highest total, this market will resolve to the earliest of the tied months.

The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Meteorology Monthly rainfall table for Melbourne (Olympic Park), available here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338. If the figure for December 2026 is not available by January 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for a period of up to three (3) calendar days (ET) to allow the figure to be published. If no figure is published within that period, the December market will resolve to "No", and this market will resolve according to the month with the highest published total among August, October and November.

Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.