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MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

ActiveMidterms10 outcomesEnds Nov 4, 2026

Republican 35-40% leads at 24.0%, ahead of Republican 30-35% (23.2%) and Republican 40-45% (22.5%).

24h volume: $2.0K
Total volume: $12.8K
Whales: 0
Fresh wallets: 0

Trade on Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 10Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

Republican 35-40%$2.6K vol24.0%+3.5Buy Yes 24.0¢Buy No 76.0¢

Republican 30-35%$2.8K vol23.2%−15.8Buy Yes 23.2¢Buy No 76.8¢

Republican 40-45%$3.0K vol22.5%−0.5Buy Yes 22.5¢Buy No 77.5¢

Republican 45-50%$662 vol15.8%+3.0Buy Yes 15.8¢Buy No 84.2¢

Republican 25-30%$728 vol5.5%−14.5Buy Yes 5.5¢Buy No 94.5¢

Republican 50%+$662 vol3.2%−3.9Buy Yes 3.2¢Buy No 96.8¢

Republican 10-20%$577 vol2.9%−1.1Buy Yes 2.9¢Buy No 97.2¢

Republican 0-10%$512 vol1.4%−0.2Buy Yes 1.4¢Buy No 98.6¢

Republican 20-25%$806 vol0.50%−2.2Buy Yes 0.5¢Buy No 99.5¢

Democrat Wins$466 vol0.45%-Buy Yes 0.4¢Buy No 99.5¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.