November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest leads at 92.5%, ahead of 2nd hottest (6.7%) and 3rd hottest (0.05%).
- 24h volume
- $1.4K
- Total volume
- $10.8K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 1st hottest a 93% chance, ahead of 2nd hottest at 7% and 3rd hottest at under 1%. 4 outcomes are listed. 1st hottest has risen from 51% on Oct 30 to 94% now.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $10.8K has been traded in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 29, 2026.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.
Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.