Rahul Gandhi arrested by...?
December 31: Yes at 25.5%, No at 74.5%.
- 24h volume
- $95
- Total volume
- $8.2K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
What are the odds on "Rahul Gandhi arrested by December 31"?
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes for December 31 at 26%. Yes has fallen from 36% on Oct 29 to 22% now. Over the last 24 hours it is down 3.0 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $8.2K has been traded in total, $95 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rahul Gandhi is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Rahul Gandhi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed; (ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, chargesheet, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) he is held for remand, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in a chargesheet, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.