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Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision in March?

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision in March?

ActiveRBNZ5 outcomesEnds Mar 17, 2027

No Change leads at 46.0%, ahead of 25 bps increase (24.0%) and 25 bps decrease (14.5%).

24h volume
$121
Total volume
$21.7K
Whales
0
Fresh wallets
0
Source: Polymarket ↗
Outcome · 5Chance
46%+6.5%
24%−15.0%
14%−1.0%
7%
<1%

Market read

Who leads the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision in March market on Polymarket?

Polymarket traders give No Change a 46% chance, ahead of 25 bps increase at 24% and 25 bps decrease at 14%. 5 outcomes are listed. No Change has fallen from 51% on Oct 30 to 27% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 6.5 points.

Where is the whale money going?

No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $21.7K has been traded in total, $121 of it in the last 24 hours.

How does this market resolve?

Trading is scheduled to close on Mar 17, 2027.

Resolution rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its March 2027 meeting, scheduled for March 17, 2027, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.