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US economic state at the end of 2026?

ActiveEconomy4 outcomesEnds Feb 1, 2027

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) leads at 72.5%, ahead of Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) (28.5%) and Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) (0.75%).

24h volume
$732
Total volume
$104.5K
Whales
0
Fresh wallets
0
Trade on Polymarket ↗
Outcome · 4Chance24hTrade on Polymarket
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)$33.5K vol72.5%−0.5Buy Yes 72.5¢Buy No 27.5¢
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)$50.0K vol28.5%+1.5Buy Yes 28.5¢Buy No 71.5¢
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)$7.3K vol0.75%−0.9Buy Yes 0.8¢Buy No 99.3¢
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)$13.9K vol0.30%−0.2Buy Yes 0.3¢Buy No 99.7¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.