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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

ActiveAI15 outcomesEnds Jan 1, 2027

Anthropic leads at 61.5%, ahead of Meta (13.5%) and OpenAI (12.0%).

24h volume: $253
Total volume: $214.6K
Whales: 0
Fresh wallets: 0

Trade on Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 15Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

Anthropic$1.8K vol61.5%−15.0Buy Yes 61.5¢Buy No 38.5¢

Meta$21.4K vol13.5%−0.5Buy Yes 13.5¢Buy No 86.5¢

OpenAI$40.0K vol12.0%−1.0Buy Yes 12.0¢Buy No 88.0¢

xAI$10.8K vol7.0%-Buy Yes 7.0¢Buy No 93.0¢

DeepSeek$24.3K vol5.5%-Buy Yes 5.5¢Buy No 94.5¢

Baidu$3.6K vol5.0%-Buy Yes 5.0¢Buy No 95.0¢

Alibaba$5.7K vol4.5%-Buy Yes 4.5¢Buy No 95.5¢

Microsoft$5.5K vol4.5%-Buy Yes 4.5¢Buy No 95.5¢

Z.ai$8.0K vol4.1%+1.0Buy Yes 4.1¢Buy No 95.9¢

Moonshot$15.1K vol2.8%-Buy Yes 2.8¢Buy No 97.2¢

Mistral$12.9K vol2.5%-Buy Yes 2.5¢Buy No 97.5¢

Meituan$6.2K vol2.5%-Buy Yes 2.5¢Buy No 97.5¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.