Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
The market prices Yes at 2.6% and No at 97.4%.
- 24h volume
- $33
- Total volume
- $142.9K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
What are the odds on "Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027"?
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 97%.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $142.9K has been traded in total, $33 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.