Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑5k leads at 99.5%, ahead of ↑5.5k (97.3%) and ↑6k (85.5%).
- 24h volume
- $1.7K
- Total volume
- $8.3M
- Whales
- 8
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the Measles cases in U.S. in 2026 market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give ↑5k a over 99% chance, ahead of ↑5.5k at 97% and ↑6k at 86%. 16 outcomes are listed, 8 of them already resolved. ↑5k has risen from 97% on Oct 29 to over 99% now.
Where is the whale money going?
Our tracker has logged 8 whale bets ($5,000 or more) on this market from 8 wallets since Sep 22, $53.0K in all. The most whale money went to Yes on ↑6.5k: $31.9K, 60% of the total. The largest single bet was $8.1K on Yes on ↑5k at 67¢ by @taiyizh on Sep 22. $8.3M has been traded in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.