Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

ActiveWorld8 outcomesEnds Oct 26, 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro <4% leads at 39.5%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% (28.5%) and Lula da Silva <4% (21.0%).

24h volume: $311.9K
Total volume: $1.8M
Whales: 8
Fresh wallets: 4

Trade on Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 8Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro <4%$308.4K vol39.5%−2.0Buy Yes 39.5¢Buy No 60.5¢

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%$296.0K vol28.5%−1.0Buy Yes 28.5¢Buy No 71.5¢

Lula da Silva <4%$132.5K vol21.0%+1.5Buy Yes 21.0¢Buy No 79.0¢

Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%$411.2K vol8.2%+0.1Buy Yes 8.2¢Buy No 91.8¢

Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+$291.3K vol2.5%−0.1Buy Yes 2.5¢Buy No 97.5¢

Lula da Silva 4-8%$113.3K vol1.7%+0.1Buy Yes 1.7¢Buy No 98.3¢

Lula da Silva 8-12%$107.6K vol0.25%−0.1Buy Yes 0.3¢Buy No 99.8¢

Lula da Silva 12%+$93.5K vol0.25%-Buy Yes 0.3¢Buy No 99.8¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.

Whales & fresh walletsConnecting

Market vol · 5m$308

All trades · 5m4

Buy pressure17%

@flawfenceWhale33m ago

$7,537 buying No on Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

Bought at: $0.90
Shares: 8,373
Profit if right: $835

@mazanWhale44m ago

$7,889 buying No on Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 8,100
Profit if right: $211

@nibelung.retiredWhale14h ago

$8,730 buying No on Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 9,000
Profit if right: $270

@nibelung.retiredWhale15h ago

$9,705 buying No on Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $295

@nibelung.retiredWhale16h ago

$7,405 buying No on Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+

Bought at: $0.97
Shares: 7,603
Profit if right: $198

@anoin123Whale19h ago

$6,876 buying No on Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

Bought at: $0.89
Shares: 7,700
Profit if right: $824

@0xwordjnnWhale1d ago

$5,122 buying No on Flávio Bolsonaro <4%

Bought at: $0.58
Shares: 8,831
Profit if right: $3,709

@ThanksGivingTurkey1001Whale1d ago

$12,418 buying Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro <4%

Bought at: $0.42
Shares: 29,887
Profit if right: $17,469

@PunisherReturnFresh1d ago

$513 buying Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

Bought at: $0.12
Shares: 4,240
Profit if right: $3,727

@bttnjapanFresh2d ago

$999 buying Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

Bought at: $0.13
Shares: 7,706
Profit if right: $6,707

@BeznFresh2d ago

$518 buying Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

Bought at: $0.09
Shares: 6,066
Profit if right: $5,548

@BeznFresh2d ago

$579 buying Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

Bought at: $0.09
Shares: 6,588
Profit if right: $6,009

@BeznFresh2d ago

$605 buying Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

Bought at: $0.09
Shares: 6,863
Profit if right: $6,258

@SadisticTendenciesFresh6d ago

$551 buying Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

Bought at: $0.15
Shares: 3,677
Profit if right: $3,126

@mr52globalWhale7d ago

$6,213 buying Yes on Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%

Bought at: $0.48
Shares: 13,050
Profit if right: $6,837

@RenanPresidente.Whale8d ago

$6,725 buying No on Flávio Bolsonaro <4%

Bought at: $0.66
Shares: 10,237
Profit if right: $3,512

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