Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

ActivePolitics7 outcomesEnds Jan 1, 2027

December 31, 2027 leads at 40.0%, ahead of June 30, 2027 (35.0%) and March 31, 2027 (18.5%).

24h volume: $12.3K
Total volume: $2.9M
Whales: 11
Fresh wallets: 1

Trade on Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 7Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

December 31, 2027$7.3K vol40.0%−9.0Buy Yes 40.0¢Buy No 60.0¢

June 30, 2027$3.2K vol35.0%−0.5Buy Yes 35.0¢Buy No 65.0¢

March 31, 2027$3.1K vol18.5%−2.0Buy Yes 18.5¢Buy No 81.5¢

December 31, 2026$2.3M vol4.5%−1.0Buy Yes 4.5¢Buy No 95.5¢

November 30, 2026$14.0K vol3.8%−0.3Buy Yes 3.8¢Buy No 96.3¢

October 31, 2026$150.0K vol1.1%−0.2Buy Yes 1.1¢Buy No 98.8¢

September 30, 2026$392.4K vol · resolved0.0%−0.2

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.

Whales & fresh walletsConnecting

Market vol · 5m-

All trades · 5m-

Buy pressure-

@GoriIIaWhale4d ago

$5,200 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.94
Shares: 5,532
Profit if right: $332

@Valen9Whale16d ago

$6,277 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.89
Shares: 7,053
Profit if right: $776

@GoriIIaWhale16d ago

$9,032 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.90
Shares: 10,035
Profit if right: $1,004

@GoriIIaWhale21d ago

$10,648 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.89
Shares: 11,964
Profit if right: $1,316

@goroviWhale21d ago

$5,753 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.88
Shares: 6,511
Profit if right: $757

@The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAWhale22d ago

$5,309 buying No on October 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 5,588
Profit if right: $279

@GoriIIaWhale22d ago

$8,306 buying No on October 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.93
Shares: 8,932
Profit if right: $625

@GoriIIaWhale24d ago

$11,792 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.82
Shares: 14,381
Profit if right: $2,589

@GoriIIaWhale25d ago

$6,452 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.80
Shares: 8,065
Profit if right: $1,613

@GoriIIaWhale25d ago

$10,365 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.81
Shares: 12,796
Profit if right: $2,431

@GoriIIaWhale25d ago

$20,117 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.81
Shares: 24,836
Profit if right: $4,719

@flawfenceWhale25d ago

$5,667 buying Yes on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.19
Shares: 30,000
Profit if right: $24,333

@MisTKyWhale25d ago

$7,343 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.82
Shares: 8,955
Profit if right: $1,612

@GoriIIaWhale25d ago

$16,993 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.81
Shares: 21,019
Profit if right: $4,025

@PantheraUnciaWhale26d ago

$5,523 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.72
Shares: 7,671
Profit if right: $2,148

@aff3Whale26d ago

$25,147 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.80
Shares: 31,434
Profit if right: $6,287

@SnowLover7Whale26d ago

$6,408 buying Yes on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.20
Shares: 32,039
Profit if right: $25,631

@aff3Whale26d ago

$22,037 buying No on September 30, 2026

Bought at: $0.96
Shares: 22,956
Profit if right: $918

@aff3Whale26d ago

$6,457 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.80
Shares: 8,071
Profit if right: $1,614

@The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAWhale27d ago

$11,131 buying No on September 30, 2026

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 11,717
Profit if right: $586

@The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAWhale28d ago

$10,557 buying No on September 30, 2026

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 11,112
Profit if right: $556

@Max3Whale28d ago

$13,000 buying No on September 30, 2026

Bought at: $0.95
Shares: 13,719
Profit if right: $719

@PantheraUnciaWhale29d ago

$6,131 buying No on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.75
Shares: 8,174
Profit if right: $2,044

@MerziPuperziFresh29d ago

$4,756 buying Yes on December 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.25
Shares: 19,047
Profit if right: $14,291

@3648393489047Whale30d ago

$5,006 buying No on October 31, 2026

Bought at: $0.86
Shares: 5,841
Profit if right: $835

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