Gemini Carbon released by...?
December 31 leads at 98.4%, ahead of November 30 (97.1%) and November 15 (82.0%).
- 24h volume
- $33.1K
- Total volume
- $220.3K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 1
Market read
Who leads the Gemini Carbon released by... market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give December 31 a 98% chance, ahead of November 30 at 97% and November 15 at 82%. 10 outcomes are listed, 2 of them already resolved. December 31 has risen from 92% on Oct 29 to 98% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 0.6 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. 1 first-time wallet has bet $500 or more here, the biggest $800 on Yes on November 15. $220.3K has been traded in total, $33.1K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.