How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
400k to 425k leads at 26.6%, ahead of 425k to 450k (16.6%) and 500k to 525k (16.0%).
- 24h volume
- $857
- Total volume
- $15.8K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026 market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 400k to 425k a 27% chance, ahead of 425k to 450k at 17% and 500k to 525k at 16%. 9 outcomes are listed. 400k to 425k has risen from 17% on Oct 29 to 28% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 3.0 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $15.8K has been traded in total, $857 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Mar 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.