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Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?

Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?

ActiveAI4 outcomesEnds Jul 1, 2027

1440+ leads at 38.2%, ahead of 1450+ (33.5%) and 1460+ (11.0%).

24h volume
$1.2K
Total volume
$67.4K
Whales
0
Fresh wallets
0
Source: Polymarket ↗
Outcome · 4Chance
38%−21.6%
34%+3.0%
11%
2%+0.1%

Market read

Who leads the Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut market on Polymarket?

Polymarket traders give 1440+ a 38% chance, ahead of 1450+ at 34% and 1460+ at 11%. 4 outcomes are listed. 1440+ has fallen from 56% on Oct 29 to 38% now. Over the last 24 hours it is down 22 points.

Where is the whale money going?

No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $67.4K has been traded in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours.

How does this market resolve?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jul 1, 2027.

Resolution rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Terra model (5.7+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.