Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)
170-174 leads at 52.3%, ahead of 175-179 (38.7%) and Below 170 (4.1%).
- 24h volume
- $4.2K
- Total volume
- $36.2K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets) market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 170-174 a 52% chance, ahead of 175-179 at 39% and Below 170 at 4%. 6 outcomes are listed. 170-174 has risen from 6% on Oct 29 to 52% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 6.2 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $36.2K has been traded in total, $4.2K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 4, 2026.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.