Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)

ActivePolitics128 outcomesEnds Nov 3, 2026

None leads at 95.3%, ahead of AK (4.8%).

24h volume: $1.2M
Total volume: $78.0M
Whales: 36
Fresh wallets: 1

Source: Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 128Chance

95%+11.5%

5%−8.8%

0%−3.3%

0%−0.7%

0%−0.3%

0%−1.3%

0%−0.5%

0%−0.1%

0%−0.4%

0%−0.1%

0%−0.3%

Whales & fresh wallets

@DonaldinhoTrumpitoWhale3h ago

$113,841 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 94.9¢
Shares: 119,997
Profit if right: $6,156

@DonaldinhoTrumpitoWhale3h ago

$6,198 buying No on AK

Bought at: 95.1¢
Shares: 6,519
Profit if right: $321

@65765757Whale5h ago

$15,295 in 2 fills buying Yes on None

Bought at: 93.9¢
Shares: 16,290
Profit if right: $995

@HerrieDavisWhale6h ago

$7,440 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 91.8¢
Shares: 8,104
Profit if right: $664

@LolakisWhale7h ago

$6,666 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 92.8¢
Shares: 7,186
Profit if right: $520

@ArmageddonRewardsBillyWhale7h ago

$5,562 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 93.2¢
Shares: 5,967
Profit if right: $406

@JJoWhale9h ago

$9,372 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 93.8¢
Shares: 9,992
Profit if right: $619

@MisTKyWhale9h ago

$37,496 in 3 fills buying Yes on None

Bought at: 91.8¢
Shares: 40,825
Profit if right: $3,329

@DonaldinhoTrumpitoWhale9h ago

$44,203 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 92¢
Shares: 48,046
Profit if right: $3,844

@The-JokerWhale14h ago

$6,211 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 90¢
Shares: 6,904
Profit if right: $693

@TeemuPukkiWhale15h ago

$8,424 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 96.3¢
Shares: 8,750
Profit if right: $326

@justme003Whale16h ago

$15,571 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 96.8¢
Shares: 16,079
Profit if right: $508

@cocos228Whale16h ago

$25,000 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 97¢
Shares: 25,779
Profit if right: $779

@MenacingTurtleWhale16h ago

$5,054 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 97¢
Shares: 5,211
Profit if right: $156

@CryptobahemithWhale16h ago

$5,200 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 92¢
Shares: 5,652
Profit if right: $452

@TeemuPukkiWhale16h ago

$8,704 buying No on AK

Bought at: 89.9¢
Shares: 9,681
Profit if right: $978

@abed777-3Whale17h ago

$6,319 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 89.5¢
Shares: 7,060
Profit if right: $741

@musa77Whale17h ago

$10,000 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 85¢
Shares: 11,772
Profit if right: $1,772

@ImJustKenWhale17h ago

$14,413 in 2 fills buying Yes on None

Bought at: 84.5¢
Shares: 17,057
Profit if right: $2,644

@majorlazer123Whale23h ago

$7,500 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 89¢
Shares: 8,431
Profit if right: $931

@segment3Whale23h ago

$16,932 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 88¢
Shares: 19,241
Profit if right: $2,309

@scoutWhale1d ago

$16,013 in 2 fills buying No on MI

Bought at: 99.8¢
Shares: 16,049
Profit if right: $36

@scoutWhale1d ago

$6,390 buying No on AK, MI

Bought at: 99.9¢
Shares: 6,399
Profit if right: $9

@JackseryWhale1d ago

$16,998 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 85¢
Shares: 19,998
Profit if right: $3,000

0xb9ef…0b8bWhale1d ago

$8,544 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 95.1¢
Shares: 8,984
Profit if right: $440

@ancianoWhale1d ago

$8,948 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 93¢
Shares: 9,622
Profit if right: $674

@Malfunction.Whale1d ago

$40,354 buying No on AK, IA

Bought at: 99.9¢
Shares: 40,394
Profit if right: $40

@BABELCONSTELWhale1d ago

$10,000 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 92.1¢
Shares: 10,853
Profit if right: $853

0xe234…304aWhale1d ago

$7,184 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 89.8¢
Shares: 8,000
Profit if right: $816

@suraxyWhale1d ago

$5,000 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 88¢
Shares: 5,682
Profit if right: $682

@JackseryWhale1d ago

$26,529 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 87¢
Shares: 30,493
Profit if right: $3,964

@DonaldinhoTrumpitoWhale1d ago

$20,000 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 80¢
Shares: 25,000
Profit if right: $5,000

@mountaindewdWhale1d ago

$5,070 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 84.5¢
Shares: 6,000
Profit if right: $930

@BABELCONSTELWhale1d ago

$14,900 in 2 fills buying Yes on None

Bought at: 85.5¢
Shares: 17,434
Profit if right: $2,534

@capitalallocatorFresh1d ago

$3,000 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 75¢
Shares: 4,000
Profit if right: $1,000

@DonaldinhoTrumpitoWhale1d ago

$44,581 in 4 fills buying Yes on None

Bought at: 78.3¢
Shares: 56,948
Profit if right: $12,367

@cocos228Whale1d ago

$12,255 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 86.6¢
Shares: 14,146
Profit if right: $1,891

@fitmkWhale1d ago

$12,000 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 87¢
Shares: 13,793
Profit if right: $1,793

@The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAWhale1d ago

$14,564 in 2 fills buying Yes on None

Bought at: 84¢
Shares: 17,338
Profit if right: $2,774

@CoffeeDespiserWhale1d ago

$10,867 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 75¢
Shares: 14,490
Profit if right: $3,622

@DropperWhale1d ago

$10,742 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 66.8¢
Shares: 16,094
Profit if right: $5,351

@KettleWhale1d ago

$9,901 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 63¢
Shares: 15,720
Profit if right: $5,820

@DonaldinhoTrumpitoWhale1d ago

$14,935 in 2 fills buying Yes on None

Bought at: 48.6¢
Shares: 30,700
Profit if right: $15,765

@YouNoWhoWhale1d ago

$18,016 in 3 fills buying Yes on None

Bought at: 55.1¢
Shares: 32,684
Profit if right: $14,668

@PhilwosWhale1d ago

$5,250 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 51¢
Shares: 10,294
Profit if right: $5,044

0xa2cd…2ba0Whale1d ago

$274,545 buying Yes on None

Bought at: 36.9¢
Shares: 744,630
Profit if right: $470,085

@BreakTheBankWhale1d ago

$467,804 buying No on None

Bought at: 63.1¢
Shares: 741,134
Profit if right: $273,330

Market read

Who leads the Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) market on Polymarket?

Polymarket traders give None a 95% chance, ahead of AK at 5%. 128 outcomes are listed, 126 of them already resolved. None has risen from 20% on Oct 29 to 95% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 12 points.

Where is the whale money going?

Our tracker has logged 485 whale bets ($5,000 or more) on this market from 78 wallets since Nov 2, $6.9M in all. The most whale money went to Yes on None: $1.7M, 25% of the total. The largest single bet was $467.8K on No on None at 63¢ by @BreakTheBank on Nov 3. 6 first-time wallets have bet $500 or more here, the biggest $7.3K on Yes on IA. $78.0M has been traded in total, $1.2M of it in the last 24 hours.

How does this market resolve?

Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 3, 2026.

Resolution rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.

Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027.

A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.

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