Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)
December 31 leads at 28.5%, ahead of November 30 (11.5%).
- 24h volume
- $7.6K
- Total volume
- $150.3K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle) market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give December 31 a 28% chance, ahead of November 30 at 12%. December 31 has fallen from 37% on Oct 29 to 28% now. Over the last 24 hours it is down 1.0 point.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $150.3K has been traded in total, $7.6K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control.
Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify.
Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual Houthi control has been established.
If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying capture cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Houthi control as defined above is not confirmed by this market’s resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only control established on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, will be considered.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and photo or video evidence of Houthi control.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.