What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

YES is currently trading at 17.0% on Polymarket. NO is at 83.0%. 25 recent prints tracked.

When does this market resolve?

This Polymarket market resolves on Dec 31, 2026.

What is the total trading volume for this market?

Total trading volume on Polymarket: $59.16M. Last 24h: $137.8K.

Who are the biggest traders on this market?

The largest tracked bet is $24.6K by bullishkirby entered at 82%. 12 large trades tracked in the last 7 days.

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ActiveMilitary StrikesResolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled …

YES

17.0%

83.0%

Volume

$59.16M

Trade on Polymarket→

Stored · 7 days

Largest trades

12 tracked

1
@bullishkirby
No@ 82.0%·2d ago
$24.6K
30,000 shares
2
@Vilgefortz
No@ 83.0%·3d ago
$19.9K
24,000 shares
3
@xm39
Yes@ 18.0%·2d ago
$17.5K
97,402 shares
4
@AngryRhino
No@ 83.0%·1d ago
$16.6K
20,000 shares
5
@Vilgefortz
No@ 83.0%·17h ago
$14.9K
18,000 shares
6
Fearless-Misnomer
No@ 83.0%·7h ago
$10.6K
12,749 shares
7
@Bet1nthedark
No@ 83.0%·17h ago
$10.0K
12,048 shares
8
@adonpoli
No@ 83.0%·1d ago
$8.3K
10,000 shares
9
@Tigerofthehood
No@ 83.0%·7h ago
$8.3K
10,000 shares
10
@Tigerofthehood
No@ 83.0%·1h ago
$8.3K
10,000 shares
11
@scout
No@ 83.0%·11h ago
$8.0K
9,594 shares
12
@xm39
Yes@ 17.0%·1d ago
$7.0K
41,346 shares

Recent · live

Latest market flow

25 prints

@garbagefriends
No@ 83.0%·19m ago
$7
@G9vQK5Gcyx
No@ 82.0%·20m ago
$0
0x5449…992b
No@ 83.0%·20m ago
$1
0xb6ce…895d
No@ 83.0%·20m ago
$4
@lukacarste
No@ 82.0%·20m ago
$74
@Adrbar
No@ 83.0%·42m ago
$10
Villainous-Volatility
No@ 83.0%·51m ago
$85
@Png19982026
No@ 83.0%·1h ago
$5
0xa5cb…6cb5
Yes@ 17.0%·1h ago
$0
Favorable-Pepper-Brushing
No@ 83.0%·1h ago
$47
@Tigerofthehood
No@ 83.0%·1h ago
$8.3K
@betstaker
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$9
@G9vQK5Gcyx
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$13
0x5449…992b
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$1
@m3tuna
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$2
0xb6ce…895d
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$41
@zstaxpl4fpb2
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$8
0x4da9…3f5d
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$5
@5-testfollower-car
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$4
Odd-Deformation
No@ 82.0%·2h ago
$2.0K
@Drebleky
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$5
Villainous-Volatility
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$168
@betstaker
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$7
@G9vQK5Gcyx
No@ 83.0%·2h ago
$10
@G9vQK5Gcyx
No@ 82.0%·2h ago
$0

About this market

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? is a live Polymarket prediction market in the Military Strikes category, resolving on Dec 31, 2026. Current odds put YES at 17.0% and NO at 83.0%.

PolyInsider tracks every trade on this market in real time. In the last 7 days, 12 large bets have been stored, with the biggest at $24.6K on a total market volume of $59.16M. Last 24-hour volume: $137.8K.

Trade directly on Polymarket via the link at the top — every click through PolyInsider supports the data infrastructure powering this site. Open the live order book on Polymarket →