How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
8 leads at 65.0%, ahead of 7 (25.4%) and Greater than 8 (18.0%).
- 24h volume
- $4
- Total volume
- $203.4K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026 market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 8 a 65% chance, ahead of 7 at 25% and Greater than 8 at 18%. 6 outcomes are listed. 8 has risen from 57% on Oct 28 to 65% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 1.0 point.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $203.4K has been traded in total, $4 of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jul 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.