Next Israeli government formed by...?
June 30, 2027 leads at 75.5%, ahead of February 28, 2027 (53.5%) and December 31, 2026 (28.5%).
- 24h volume
- $14.8K
- Total volume
- $150.8K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 1
Market read
Who leads the Next Israeli government formed by... market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give June 30, 2027 a 76% chance, ahead of February 28, 2027 at 54% and December 31, 2026 at 28%. 4 outcomes are listed. June 30, 2027 has risen from 64% on Oct 29 to 76% now.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. 1 first-time wallet has bet $500 or more here, the biggest $637 on No on February 28, 2027. $150.8K has been traded in total, $14.8K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jul 1, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe.
Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.