Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
44 leads at 92.5%, ahead of 45 (5.5%) and 46 (0.60%).
- 24h volume
- $449.8K
- Total volume
- $845.5K
- Whales
- 5
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 44 a 93% chance, ahead of 45 at 6% and 46 at under 1%. 9 outcomes are listed, 6 of them already resolved. 44 has risen from 9% on Oct 29 to 93% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 31 points.
Where is the whale money going?
Our tracker has logged 8 whale bets ($5,000 or more) on this market from 5 wallets since Nov 3, $52.2K in all. The most whale money went to Yes on 44: $34.7K, 66% of the total. The largest single bet was $10.0K on Yes on 44 at 90¢ by @Contestable-Parfait on Nov 4. $845.5K has been traded in total, $449.8K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 3, 2026.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.