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Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?

Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?

ActiveWorld19 outcomesEnds Oct 28, 2026

Gadi Eizenkot leads at 97.7%, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu (2.4%) and Naftali Bennett (0.05%).

24h volume
$165.9K
Total volume
$847.5K
Whales
1
Fresh wallets
0
Source: Polymarket ↗
Outcome · 19Chance
98%+4.2%
2%−4.2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%

Market read

Who leads the Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government market on Polymarket?

Polymarket traders give Gadi Eizenkot a 98% chance, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 2% and Naftali Bennett at under 1%. 19 outcomes are listed. Gadi Eizenkot has risen from 49% on Oct 29 to 98% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 4.2 points.

Where is the whale money going?

Our tracker has logged 2 whale bets ($5,000 or more) on this market from 1 wallet since Nov 1, $14.3K in all. All of it went to Yes on Gadi Eizenkot. The largest single bet was $7.4K on Yes on Gadi Eizenkot at 84¢ by @LulaVaiPerder on Nov 1. $847.5K has been traded in total, $165.9K of it in the last 24 hours.

How does this market resolve?

Trading is scheduled to close on Oct 28, 2026.

Resolution rules from Polymarket

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.