Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
The market prices Yes at 0.0% and No at 100.0%.
- 24h volume
- $0
- Total volume
- $12.4M
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
What are the odds on "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025"?
Resolved: No. Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 100%.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more was tracked on this market while it traded. $12.4M has been traded in total.
How does this market resolve?
The market closed on Dec 31, 2025.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.