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2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Activedemocrats13 outcomesEnds Nov 4, 2026

Democrats 8-10% leads at 28.5%, ahead of Democrats 6-8% (21.0%) and Democrats 10-12% (18.0%).

24h volume: $387
Total volume: $157.8K
Whales: 0
Fresh wallets: 0

Trade on Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 13Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

Democrats 8-10%$16.6K vol28.5%-Buy Yes 28.5¢Buy No 71.5¢

Democrats 6-8%$17.4K vol21.0%−0.5Buy Yes 21.0¢Buy No 79.0¢

Democrats 10-12%$11.0K vol18.0%−2.0Buy Yes 18.0¢Buy No 82.0¢

Democrats 12-14%$6.5K vol10.1%−0.3Buy Yes 10.1¢Buy No 90.0¢

Democrats 4-6%$8.7K vol9.0%−0.5Buy Yes 9.0¢Buy No 91.0¢

Democrats 2-4%$17.3K vol5.3%−1.1Buy Yes 5.3¢Buy No 94.8¢

Republicans 4-6%$5.3K vol3.5%−0.1Buy Yes 3.5¢Buy No 96.5¢

Democrats 0-2%$22.0K vol3.3%−0.3Buy Yes 3.3¢Buy No 96.7¢

Democrats 16%+$5.1K vol3.2%+0.1Buy Yes 3.2¢Buy No 96.8¢

Democrats 14-16%$4.7K vol3.1%+0.4Buy Yes 3.1¢Buy No 96.9¢

Republicans 0-2%$6.9K vol2.4%+0.1Buy Yes 2.4¢Buy No 97.6¢

Republicans 2-4%$31.3K vol2.3%−0.2Buy Yes 2.3¢Buy No 97.7¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.