Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting leads at 50.0%, ahead of April 2027 Meeting (29.5%) and June 2027 Meeting (27.5%).
- 24h volume
- $3.7K
- Total volume
- $3.8M
- Whales
- 2
- Fresh wallets
- 0
July 2027 Meeting$127 vol50.0%-April 2027 Meeting$51 vol29.5%−1.5June 2027 Meeting$27 vol27.5%-March 2027 Meeting$2.2K vol14.0%+0.5January 2027 Meeting$7.6K vol10.0%+0.1December 2026 Meeting$428.4K vol2.5%−0.6October 2026 Meeting$236.4K vol0.25%-January Meeting$588.1K vol · resolved0.0%−0.8March Meeting · resolved0.0%+0.4April Meeting$543.0K vol · resolved0.0%−0.4June Meeting$785.0K vol · resolved0.0%−0.7July Meeting$579.1K vol · resolved0.0%−0.2September 2026 Meeting$645.1K vol · resolved0.0%−0.4Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.
Market read
Who leads the Fed rate cut by... market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give July 2027 Meeting a 50% chance, ahead of April 2027 Meeting at 30% and June 2027 Meeting at 28%. 13 outcomes are listed, 6 of them already resolved. July 2027 Meeting has fallen from 51% on Oct 19 to 50% now.
Where is the whale money going?
Our tracker has logged 3 whale bets ($5,000 or more) on this market from 2 wallets since Sep 16, $38.4K in all. The most whale money went to No on September 2026 Meeting: $24.7K, 64% of the total. The largest single bet was $15.7K on No on September 2026 Meeting at 100¢ by @classified on Sep 16. $3.8M has been traded in total, $3.7K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 29, 2028.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.