US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
1.5% to 2.0% leads at 19.9%, ahead of 2.0% to 2.5% (17.5%) and <1.5% (12.0%).
- 24h volume
- $15.0K
- Total volume
- $27.3K
- Whales
- 0
- Fresh wallets
- 0
Market read
Who leads the US GDP growth in Q4 2026 market on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders give 1.5% to 2.0% a 20% chance, ahead of 2.0% to 2.5% at 18% and <1.5% at 12%. 7 outcomes are listed. 1.5% to 2.0% has fallen from 51% on Oct 29 to 16% now. Over the last 24 hours it is up 14 points.
Where is the whale money going?
No single bet of $5,000 or more has been tracked on this market yet. $27.3K has been traded in total, $15.0K of it in the last 24 hours.
How does this market resolve?
Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 29, 2027.
Resolution rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for January 28, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.