Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

ActiveFDV10 outcomesEnds Jan 1, 2028

$100M leads at 98.5%, ahead of $200M (98.0%) and $300M (93.2%).

24h volume: $23.8K
Total volume: $3.9M
Whales: 10
Fresh wallets: 10

Source: Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 10Chance

98%+1.9%

98%+0.5%

93%−0.3%

86%−0.5%

73%

59%+2.0%

22%−2.9%

13%+1.8%

6%+0.1%

4%−0.3%

Whales & fresh wallets

@manekinekoWhale28d ago

$8,858 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 63¢
Shares: 14,061
Profit if right: $5,202

@manekinekoWhale28d ago

$8,055 buying Yes on $800M

Bought at: 78¢
Shares: 10,327
Profit if right: $2,272

@ShuheX8Fresh28d ago

$4,900 buying No on $2B

Bought at: 71.9¢
Shares: 6,814
Profit if right: $1,914

@336336Whale28d ago

$14,579 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 62.4¢
Shares: 23,378
Profit if right: $8,799

@Premarbet618Whale28d ago

$7,462 buying No on $1B

Bought at: 37.8¢
Shares: 19,767
Profit if right: $12,305

0xdc18…06a0Fresh28d ago

$2,903 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 61¢
Shares: 4,759
Profit if right: $1,856

@bank2Fresh34d ago

$4,335 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 60.4¢
Shares: 7,172
Profit if right: $2,837

@Ivankkkk7Whale38d ago

$9,960 buying Yes on $500M

Bought at: 83¢
Shares: 12,000
Profit if right: $2,040

@Ivankkkk7Whale38d ago

$5,320 buying Yes on $800M

Bought at: 76¢
Shares: 7,000
Profit if right: $1,680

@AllByMyseIfWhale38d ago

$14,149 buying No on $2B

Bought at: 66¢
Shares: 21,437
Profit if right: $7,289

@shakshukichWhale38d ago

$7,202 buying Yes on $2B

Bought at: 34¢
Shares: 21,184
Profit if right: $13,981

@lucky57Whale39d ago

$5,266 buying Yes on $100M

Bought at: 98¢
Shares: 5,373
Profit if right: $107

@CnmpoliFresh41d ago

$948 buying No on $500M

Bought at: 9.5¢
Shares: 9,985
Profit if right: $9,038

@VARBelieverWhale41d ago

$9,700 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 68¢
Shares: 14,265
Profit if right: $4,565

@jumpsquadWhale41d ago

$10,000 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 69¢
Shares: 14,493
Profit if right: $4,493

@ManmansumoutFresh41d ago

$2,530 buying No on $800M

Bought at: 20¢
Shares: 12,648
Profit if right: $10,119

@ASteroideWhale41d ago

$7,794 buying Yes on $800M

Bought at: 82¢
Shares: 9,505
Profit if right: $1,711

@Premarbet618Fresh41d ago

$1,784 buying No on $1B

Bought at: 26¢
Shares: 6,863
Profit if right: $5,078

@VARBelieverWhale41d ago

$5,344 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 75.5¢
Shares: 7,078
Profit if right: $1,734

@jumpsquadWhale42d ago

$10,000 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 67.3¢
Shares: 14,854
Profit if right: $4,854

@alertbozoFresh42d ago

$682 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 66¢
Shares: 1,033
Profit if right: $351

@lht023Fresh55d ago

$1,926 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 55.9¢
Shares: 3,445
Profit if right: $1,519

@theodetweilerFresh67d ago

$4,794 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 46.5¢
Shares: 10,308
Profit if right: $5,514

@11111222227Fresh71d ago

$1,612 buying Yes on $1B

Bought at: 55¢
Shares: 2,932
Profit if right: $1,320

Market read

Who leads the Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch market on Polymarket?

Polymarket traders give $100M a 98% chance, ahead of $200M at 98% and $300M at 93%. 10 outcomes are listed. $100M has held near 99% since Oct 29. Over the last 24 hours it is up 1.9 points.

Where is the whale money going?

Our tracker has logged 14 whale bets ($5,000 or more) on this market from 10 wallets since Sep 24, $123.7K in all. The most whale money went to Yes on $1B: $58.5K, 47% of the total. The largest single bet was $14.6K on Yes on $1B at 62¢ by @336336 on Oct 7. 10 first-time wallets have bet $500 or more here, the biggest $4.9K on No on $2B. $3.9M has been traded in total, $23.8K of it in the last 24 hours.

How does this market resolve?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2028.

Resolution rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Whales are single buys of $5,000 or more; fresh wallets are first-time accounts betting $500 or more. Prices are Polymarket's own and move with every trade. How we count these.

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