Texas Senate Election Winner

ActiveTexas Senate2 outcomesEnds Nov 4, 2026

James Talarico (D) leads at 62.5%, ahead of Ken Paxton (R) (37.5%).

24h volume: $115.9K
Total volume: $3.9M
Whales: 39
Fresh wallets: 6

Trade on Polymarket ↗

Outcome · 2Chance24hTrade on Polymarket

James Talarico (D)$1.8M vol62.5%-Buy Yes 62.5¢Buy No 37.5¢

Ken Paxton (R)$2.1M vol37.5%-Buy Yes 37.5¢Buy No 62.5¢

Click a row to chart it. Each outcome is its own market, so chances need not sum to 100%. 24h change in percentage points.

Whales & fresh walletsConnecting

Market vol · 5m$3

All trades · 5m2

Buy pressure100%

@neutralwave23Whale14h ago

$13,889 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.38
Shares: 36,550
Profit if right: $22,661

@foodenjoyerWhale14h ago

$22,661 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 36,550
Profit if right: $13,889

@foodenjoyerWhale1d ago

$24,800 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 40,000
Profit if right: $15,200

@WordleAddictWhale1d ago

$8,291 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 13,373
Profit if right: $5,082

@TigerofthehoodWhale2d ago

$6,200 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,800

@JJoWhale3d ago

$5,888 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 9,201
Profit if right: $3,312

@ClauseAIWhale3d ago

$5,400 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 15,000
Profit if right: $9,600

@mr.oziWhale3d ago

$6,069 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 9,483
Profit if right: $3,414

@Monopoly_MoneyWhale3d ago

$6,400 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,600

@imnewhere123Whale3d ago

$6,544 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 18,098
Profit if right: $11,554

@tmoneeeyWhale4d ago

$6,508 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.37
Shares: 17,589
Profit if right: $11,081

@foodenjoyerWhale4d ago

$25,131 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.63
Shares: 39,890
Profit if right: $14,759

@yeeTradezWhale4d ago

$6,209 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.63
Shares: 9,856
Profit if right: $3,647

@WickierWhale4d ago

$6,300 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.63
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,700

0x261c…827eFresh5d ago

$2,970 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.63
Shares: 4,715
Profit if right: $1,744

0x6764…49c4Whale5d ago

$10,889 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 29,842
Profit if right: $18,953

@Parz1vaIWhale5d ago

$5,820 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 9,094
Profit if right: $3,274

@pup1Whale5d ago

$9,217 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.63
Shares: 14,630
Profit if right: $5,413

@WickierWhale6d ago

$18,900 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.63
Shares: 30,000
Profit if right: $11,100

@tmoneeeyWhale6d ago

$10,151 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.37
Shares: 27,435
Profit if right: $17,284

@paddaaWhale6d ago

$6,000 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.63
Shares: 9,524
Profit if right: $3,524

0xe234…304aWhale6d ago

$6,200 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,800

0x6764…49c4Whale6d ago

$14,571 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.38
Shares: 38,346
Profit if right: $23,774

@supersmardWhale6d ago

$6,200 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,800

0x3783…f624Whale7d ago

$5,000 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.40
Shares: 12,500
Profit if right: $7,500

@untilquick-wittedsagWhale7d ago

$5,000 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.40
Shares: 12,419
Profit if right: $7,419

@tmoneeeyWhale7d ago

$39,000 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.39
Shares: 100,000
Profit if right: $61,000

@wan123Whale7d ago

$58,080 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.61
Shares: 95,214
Profit if right: $37,133

@tmoneeeyWhale7d ago

$5,779 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.38
Shares: 15,208
Profit if right: $9,429

@gm-gg-gnWhale7d ago

$12,352 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 20,000
Profit if right: $7,648

@tmoneeeyWhale7d ago

$9,544 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.38
Shares: 25,115
Profit if right: $15,571

@Monopoly_MoneyWhale7d ago

$12,400 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 20,000
Profit if right: $7,600

@CarlosoiuWhale8d ago

$5,826 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 8,964
Profit if right: $3,137

@ArbguyWhale8d ago

$9,531 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 26,475
Profit if right: $16,944

@JJoWhale8d ago

$6,181 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 9,657
Profit if right: $3,477

@tmoneeeyWhale8d ago

$19,937 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.35
Shares: 56,964
Profit if right: $37,027

@mr.oziWhale8d ago

$13,331 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 20,509
Profit if right: $7,178

@supersmardWhale8d ago

$6,500 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,500

@alextalleyWhale8d ago

$10,000 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.35
Shares: 28,571
Profit if right: $18,571

@pup1Whale8d ago

$6,267 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 9,642
Profit if right: $3,375

@VespucciiWhale8d ago

$6,500 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,500

@timpointohFresh8d ago

$824 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.35
Shares: 2,354
Profit if right: $1,530

@JJoWhale8d ago

$5,286 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 8,132
Profit if right: $2,846

@pup1Whale8d ago

$6,600 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.66
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,400

@wan123Whale8d ago

$8,161 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.66
Shares: 12,365
Profit if right: $4,204

@neutralwave23Whale8d ago

$11,866 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.34
Shares: 34,664
Profit if right: $22,799

@TigerofthehoodWhale8d ago

$5,102 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 7,850
Profit if right: $2,747

@purplegattoWhale8d ago

$18,331 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.66
Shares: 27,774
Profit if right: $9,443

@botbotWhale9d ago

$6,217 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.34
Shares: 18,285
Profit if right: $12,068

@wan123Whale9d ago

$14,715 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.66
Shares: 22,296
Profit if right: $7,581

@ScottyNoooWhale9d ago

$5,055 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 7,777
Profit if right: $2,722

@mr.oziWhale9d ago

$6,439 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 9,907
Profit if right: $3,467

@SnowLover7Whale10d ago

$16,250 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.65
Shares: 25,000
Profit if right: $8,750

@botbotWhale10d ago

$5,547 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.35
Shares: 15,849
Profit if right: $10,302

@lastminwinWhale10d ago

$7,379 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 11,529
Profit if right: $4,151

@neutralwave23Whale10d ago

$11,871 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 32,975
Profit if right: $21,104

@botbotWhale11d ago

$8,361 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 23,225
Profit if right: $14,864

@SaylorMoonWhale11d ago

$17,271 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 26,986
Profit if right: $9,715

@wan123Whale11d ago

$32,000 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 50,000
Profit if right: $18,000

@botbotWhale11d ago

$21,324 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 59,234
Profit if right: $37,910

@scottiliciousWhale12d ago

$7,353 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 11,490
Profit if right: $4,136

@Do-Not-RedeemWhale12d ago

$42,160 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 65,875
Profit if right: $23,715

@botbotWhale12d ago

$23,664 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 65,734
Profit if right: $42,070

@botbotWhale12d ago

$8,277 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.36
Shares: 22,993
Profit if right: $14,716

@mr.oziWhale12d ago

$6,400 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,600

@PantheraUnciaWhale12d ago

$6,400 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.64
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,600

@chadmureFresh13d ago

$522 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.68
Shares: 770
Profit if right: $248

@tetroseWhale13d ago

$30,890 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 49,519
Profit if right: $18,629

@botbotWhale13d ago

$7,100 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.38
Shares: 18,684
Profit if right: $11,584

@botbotWhale13d ago

$7,003 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.39
Shares: 17,956
Profit if right: $10,953

@tetroseWhale13d ago

$24,823 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 40,336
Profit if right: $15,513

@botbotWhale13d ago

$5,460 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.39
Shares: 14,000
Profit if right: $8,540

@pantomimeWhale15d ago

$8,907 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.62
Shares: 14,366
Profit if right: $5,459

@botbotWhale15d ago

$9,062 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.38
Shares: 23,847
Profit if right: $14,785

@scottiliciousWhale17d ago

$6,100 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.61
Shares: 10,000
Profit if right: $3,900

0xb9d8…275aWhale18d ago

$5,014 buying No on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.60
Shares: 8,357
Profit if right: $3,343

@ClauseAIWhale18d ago

$5,000 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.40
Shares: 12,500
Profit if right: $7,500

@ApplebobFresh19d ago

$862 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.39
Shares: 2,210
Profit if right: $1,348

@ZhangyuyangWhale23d ago

$5,558 buying Yes on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.63
Shares: 8,823
Profit if right: $3,265

@chuckrhoadesFresh33d ago

$9,884 buying Yes on Ken Paxton (R)

Bought at: $0.49
Shares: 19,999
Profit if right: $10,116

@win1231Fresh37d ago

$1,250 buying No on James Talarico (D)

Bought at: $0.50
Shares: 2,500
Profit if right: $1,250

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